A clear glass crystal ball sat atop a side table as experts discussed the future of Israel at a Nov. 10 and 11 conference at American University in Washington, D.C. Their conclusion? The future is up in the air and depends on how we move forward amid the ongoing Israel-Hamas war.
“Israel at 100: Scenarios for the Future of Israel in 2048,” sponsored by AU’s Meltzer Schwartzberg Center for Israel Studies and Kogod School of Business, featured scholars and experts, many of whom came from Israel, to discuss what the Middle Eastern country would look like in 24 years on its centennial.
Erran Carmel, a professor at AU and conference co-chairman, asked each of the speakers to develop a unique scenario of Israel’s future. They presented 15 different scenarios addressing the country’s religiosity, sustainability, Palestinian and Arab relations, ongoing conflicts, “startup nation” economy, and connections with Diaspora Jewry.
“The audience can learn from that: what are some of the possible futures and [they] can think about that accordingly,” Carmel said of the AU community.
David Passig, a renowned Israeli futurist, professor and author, gave the keynote address on Nov. 10 on Israel’s “unconventional demographic dividend” — its high birth rate that remains nearly unaffected by the country’s economic changes is unusual among high-income countries, according to The Institute for National Security Studies.
The following day’s four panels covered geopolitical futures, regional landscape, vision and fictions, and a Jewish and Palestinian future. Israeli economist Eugene Kandel delivered the Nov. 11 keynote speech about how shifting to a federalist model by 2048 would save Israel.
Yishai Sarid, the author of “The Third Temple” and one of the panelists, presented a scenario in which Israel is “not just an ordinary state” but designated to “fulfill religious and nationalistic aspirations.” He said democracy and human rights are unwelcome in this society, and that war is “an ideal” rather than a “very bad and awful necessity in order to
defend ourselves.”
“There’s no happy end to my novel and to my story and to my prediction,” Sarid said at the event.
Other panelists were more optimistic, such as Tsvi Bisk, an American Israeli futurist and director of the Center for Strategic Futuristic Thinking in Israel.
“[Israel] can be the super Massachusetts,” he told the audience. “Why do I use the example of Massachusetts? It’s about the same size geographically. It’s got about seven or eight million people less than ours. One of its major export industries is education. … One of its other major export industries is international-level hospitals.”
He added that out-of-state students at private universities in Massachusetts make up about 20 to 25% of the state’s GDP.
Bisk said he wants Israel’s population to reach 15 million by 2048, which could happen by expanding enrollment in Israeli universities and colleges and allowing Americans to open campuses in Israel.
Anwar Mhajne, a professor of political science at Stonehill College, brought to the panel her experience as a Palestinian living in Israel. She predicted that by 2048, Arab citizens will be living in de facto segregation in Israel.
“Even though Israel is going to innovate technologically, we’re going to still see a huge divide where Palestinians and Arabs, the minorities in Israel, are going to still be excluded in the high-tech sector,” Mhajne said at the event.
She said without the aid of the latest technology, the Arab community will fall behind due to climate issues and a fight for resources, something that Mhajne studies and teaches.
“That will cause pressure to define ‘us’ versus ‘them,’ fight over resources, protecting borders, security,” Mhajne said. “And that means you’re identifying an Arab as a threat because they’re coming from Arab countries. … The ‘us versus them’ is going to be clearer, more defined, and it’s going to be over resources.”
She added that if Israel increases its Jewish population, the “Arab towns” will be “suffocated.” There is time to avoid this scenario within the next quarter-century by forming smart alliances and shifting away from ideology and toward effective strategy, Mhajne said.
Though the year 2048 may seem distant to some, Carmel believes the future is always important to talk about, especially that of Israel.
“Israel is at the center of the issues around the Middle East, and so where the future of Israel will be is just as important to us all, whether we are very connected, like I am, or whether you’re more of a distant observer,” Carmel said.
But not everyone in the AU community agreed. About a half dozen protesters wore keffiyehs and quietly stood outside Constitution Hall, the residence hall hosting the event, throughout the day.
At the end of the conference, Carmel facilitated an audience poll of the scenarios, collecting votes for the most and least optimistic, most and least likely, most creative, and most thought-provoking.
Eyal Hulata’s pragmatic regional alliance scenario was voted most likely to happen, whereas Kandel’s federalist model was voted least likely.
Dr. Michael Brenner, the director of AU’s Center for Israel Studies, said Theodor Herzl, the founder of the Zionist Organization, looked 20 years to the future in his novel “Old New Land.”
“The idea of imagining a future has been a very integral part of the Zionist movement,” Brenner said.
How do David Passig and Tsvi Bisk predict Israel’s demographic and economic growth by 2048, and what are the reasons behind their optimism?
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