It is a difficult emotion to explain. The combination of hope and a deep sense of foreboding. But those are precisely the emotions many expressed in reaction to confirmation that a Gaza cease-fire, hostage release and prisoner exchange deal has been reached.
And then, hope turned to joy as Emily Damari, Romi Gonen and Doron Steinbrecher were released from Hamas captivity after 471 days, first to the Red Cross, then to the Israel Defense Forces and finally to the warm embraces of their families and a welcoming nation. But the deep sense of foreboding remains.
The cease-fire deal is complex. Phase one calls for release of 33 hostages (approximately one-third of those remaining in captivity) in groups every weekend for six weeks, a six-week cease-fire, Israeli withdrawal from populated areas in Gaza, the release of hundreds of Palestinians imprisoned by Israel — including those convicted of murder — and a surge in humanitarian assistance to Gaza.
Phase two, to be negotiated commencing on day 16 of phase one, anticipates the return of the remaining living hostages, withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza and an end to the fighting. Phase three anticipates a reconstruction plan for Gaza and the return of the remains of all other hostages.
It is going to be very difficult to complete the deal. That is so even assuming active support from the Trump administration and the international community. Indeed, it may not even be possible to move from phase one to phase two.
Internal political opposition within Netanyahu’s shrinking governing coalition to the ending of the war without removing Hamas from Gaza could stall or cause the failure of phase two negotiations. Itamar Ben-Gvir, Israel’s former minister of national security, has already resigned from the governing coalition in protest of the deal. Ben-Gvir’s resignation, along with other members of his Otzma Yehudit party, reduced Netanyahu’s coalition government to a vulnerable three-vote majority of 63.
All eyes are trained on Minister of Finance Bezalel Smotrich and his seven-member Religious Zionist party, who have advocated against ending the war and have forcefully opposed the deal. But Smotrich recognizes that were he to resign, the government would fall, new elections would be called, and he would almost certainly lose the position of influence and power he now holds. Indeed, it isn’t even clear that he would get reelected to the Knesset. So Smotrich will stick around and continue to pursue his agenda from within the coalition.
And then there are the legitimate security concerns of vulnerable Israelis. The deal will cause the release of some of the most dangerous terrorists in Israeli prisons, ranging from leaders of the Al-Aqsa Terror Brigade in Jenin, to terrorists serving multiple life sentences for their crimes, and even including two terrorists who were released as part of the Gilad Shalit 1,000-for-one exchange, and were rearrested for terrorism.
Finally, there is the real concern for the ability of Hamas to rebuild, rearm and reorganize during the cease-fire — fueled and replenished by Gaza aid — and anxious to reassert its leadership in Gaza and reorganize its terror campaign against Israel.
Despite those concerns, no one has a better answer than some form of negotiated resolution of the Israel-Hamas conflict. The question is, how much are Israelis willing to sacrifice to reclaim their beloved hostage victims, both dead and alive? Phase two negotiations may answer that question.
