The threat to northern Israel from Lebanon is real. And it is getting worse. In 24 hours last week, Hezbollah launched more than 300 rockets and drones across the Lebanese border into northern Israel. Those numbers are alarming but not surprising.
Israel and Hezbollah have been in a low-grade war since the Iranian-backed terror group began firing at Israel in a show of solidarity with Hamas after the beginning of the Gaza war last October. Neither Hezbollah’s drumbeat of threatened war nor the intensity of its missile attacks have abated over time.
In fact, the exchanges of fire between Hezbollah and Israel have intensified in recent weeks, prompting Israel to heighten preparation militarily and practically for a full-out war in the north.
The IDF has prepared through the relocation of personnel and equipment. And some 60,000 residents in Israeli communities adjacent to the Lebanon border were ordered by the government to evacuate from their homes last October. Many have been living in hotels or with family or friends, spread throughout Israel, away from their homes, their jobs and their communities.
As a result, Israel’s north has effectively been shut down, leaving evacuated cities to be targeted by Hezbollah’s rockets and drones.
The prospect of open warfare between Israel and Hezbollah is of serious concern — significantly more so than concerns about the Hamas war in Gaza or the scattered skirmishes with Yemen’s Houthis.
That’s because experts estimate that Hezbollah has some 200,000 rockets and missiles, which include guided missiles capable of hitting designated targets throughout Israel with a precision totally lacking in the less sophisticated efforts of Hamas. In addition, Hezbollah claims to have a ground force of 50,000 to 100,000 trained and war-tested fighters to support their efforts.
Beyond the immediate threat of Hezbollah itself, Israel recognizes that war with Hezbollah could lead to a wider regional confrontation. Iran, Hezbollah’s sponsor and supporter, has influence in Iraq, southern Syria and Lebanon. Iranian fighters could make their way to an Israel-Hezbollah combat zone pretty simply, and could certainly launch missiles at Israel from Iraq and Syria.
Israel is weighing the potential consequences of opening another active war front, which would stretch the IDF’s troop and equipment resources and further enflame the region. As part of that evaluation, Israel faces the now-familiar dilemma of deciding how to treat any territory conquered in south Lebanon on the day after hostilities end.
Although the challenge in south Lebanon is not as intense or consequential as it is in Gaza, the issue is another of far too many challenges that Israel needs to wrestle with in real time.
Israel is under pressure from the U.S. and other world governments to avoid escalation of its conflict with Hezbollah and to try to defuse that conflict by resolving its war against Hamas in Gaza. While that approach may work to calm Hezbollah’s efforts in the short term, no one believes that would be a long-term fix.
Israel needs to stop Hezbollah’s daily missile attacks, create a reasonable buffer between Lebanon and Israel and enable the 60,000 displaced Israelis to return to their homes and jobs. There are no easy answers.