Recalibrating Expectations in the Middle East

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US President Donald Trump speaks to journalists in the Oval Office on January 20, 2025. (Courtesy of Jim WATSON / POOL / AFP)

When Donald Trump returned to the White House, many Americans and Israelis anticipated the restoration of a familiar and favorable alignment in U.S.-Israel relations. Trump’s early moves — lifting sanctions on West Bank settlers, releasing stalled arms shipments, issuing stern warnings to Iran and helping to facilitate the release of Israeli hostages — were widely interpreted as evidence of a White House once again unequivocally supportive of Israel’s strategic posture.

It has taken only a few short months for that initial optimism to give way to unease. A series of consequential developments — Trump’s conspicuous exclusion of Israel from his regional itinerary, his separate diplomatic engagement with the Houthis amid continuing attacks on Israel, reports of a new Iran nuclear framework and the decision to grant Saudi Arabia access to civilian nuclear technology — have combined to raise concerns. While none of these actions suggest hostility toward Israel, they do reveal a policy approach that places American interests above all else.

That is not betrayal; it is the essence of sovereign statecraft.

U.S. foreign policy is driven by strategic interests, not sentimentality. In the Trump administration, that calculus tilts decidedly toward swift diplomatic wins, reduced military engagements, and the advancement of economic deals that serve American domestic and geopolitical objectives. Trump’s outreach to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, while deliberately bypassing Israel, should be understood not as a diplomatic snub, but as an effort to rebalance regional dynamics to serve a broader U.S. strategy.
This evolving reality demands a sober, strategic reassessment by the Jewish state and recognition that simple alignment with the United States will not guarantee deference to Israeli preferences.

The Trump administration’s approach to Iran is a good example. Reports that the U.S. is pursuing a revised nuclear agreement — possibly permitting continued uranium enrichment and discouraging Israeli preemptive military action — should be interpreted not as a concession to Tehran, but as a pragmatic effort by Washington to contain conflict and reassert some degree of control over a volatile region. Israel may view such a deal as dangerous and naïve, but the White House sees it as aligned with a broader strategy of disengagement from an open-ended conflict.

Similarly, the decision to move forward with a civilian nuclear program for Saudi Arabia, once thought to be dependent on Saudi-Israeli normalization, appears to be proceeding without that condition. This development underscores a critical point: American support is enduring but not automatic. It must be earned continuously through alignment of interests, mutuality of benefit and strategic cooperation.

Israel has long understood that even close allies operate within a framework of shifting priorities and domestic constraints. So, Israel understands that in response to recent developments it needs to move quickly from disappointment to a narrative that emphasizes how its approach, plans or actions contribute to key American goals like regional stability, counterterrorism, energy cooperation and the containment of adversarial powers.

We are not suggesting any retreat from the historic U.S.-Israel strategic partnership. It is and must remain ironclad. But as the relationship continues to mature, the recognition of developing American priorities will enable Israel to act with greater clarity to protect its core interests as it strengthens its standing in Washington and its role in the region.

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