As we go to press, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is meeting with President Donald Trump. The meeting is important because of the range of issues likely to be discussed and the impact their discussions could have on prospects for broader peace efforts in the Middle East, the fate of the hostage deal between Israel and Hamas, plans for the “day after” in Gaza and its Palestinian population, and the continuing viability of Netanyahu’s governing coalition.
We cannot predict what will be said or decided at the meeting. But we know the primary issues of concern to both leaders and the outsized importance that decisions made at the meeting will likely have — particularly in Israel.
The meeting comes days after the second round of the “hostages for prisoners” exchange process under phase one of the Israel-Hamas agreement and a little more than two weeks before discussions on the second phase of the deal are supposed to conclude. While Netanyahu comes to the White House as a supplicant of sorts, with an array of political, practical and military challenges at his back, he also comes with the international community’s clear recognition that Israel’s military comeback after its tragic stumble on Oct. 7, 2023, has changed the balance of power in the Middle East and destabilized the “axis of terror” led and funded by Iran.
Trump appreciates that display of resilience and power. But he has his own view of how things should play out in the next round of activity in the region and is focused on working toward a peace deal with Saudi Arabia and other Arab nations. Netanyahu shares some of those objectives but likely envisions a different path on how to get there.
Both Trump and Netanyahu know how to leverage power and advantage. Each will use those skills in their meeting. But the meeting is not a meeting of “equals.” That is not just because Trump is riding a wave of electoral victory, superpower influence and popularity. It is also because Netanyahu went to the meeting with one hand figuratively tied behind his back, as political machinations in Israel have put Netanyahu’s continued leadership in substantial peril.
In addition to coalition-shaking ramifications of Israel’s failures on Oct. 7, resurgent controversy over judicial reform and ongoing disagreements over the Haredi conscription issue, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and his far-right supporters have pledged to withdraw from the government if Israel moves forward to complete a permanent cease-fire hostage release deal with Hamas. With nowhere else to turn, Netanyahu has reportedly sought assistance from opposition Knesset leaders Yair Lapid and Benny Gantz in a deal that would have the two leaders provide Netanyahu’s government with a “safety net” to complete the hostage deal if far-right support falters, in exchange for an agreement to hold early elections one year after the last hostage is returned.
Those discussions will almost certainly be influenced by the Trump-Netanyahu meeting results. But we can’t help but notice that more and more voices in the Knesset are talking about early elections and it appears that the buzz has attracted Netanyahu’s attention
and concern.
