In the snap elections held in Germany on Feb. 23, the center-right Christian Democratic Union and its sister party the Christian Social Union led with 28.6% of the vote. That was pretty much expected. And the long-serving CDU leader, businessman Friedrich Merz, will almost certainly become the next chancellor of Germany. But Merz has his work cut out for him in forming a majority coalition in Parliament so that he can get down to business.
Merz faces many challenges, both domestic and international. On the domestic side, his government must address economic stagnation, rising social discontent and growing demands for more stringent immigration policies. Internationally, Germany faces the difficult challenge of promoting European unity while navigating shifting U.S. policies — particularly the Trump administration’s contrarian approach to NATO, European allies and the war in Ukraine. And Merz needs political partners to form a governing coalition.
Merz’s alternatives are limited. According to reports, a narrow majority coalition with the Social Democrats (who won a record-low 16% in the election) is the most likely scenario. And they may be joined by some stragglers from other minority parties. But the one thing that will not happen is any joinder by Merz with the far-right Alternative for Germany party (AfD), which came in second in the election with a whopping 20.8% of the vote — a percentage that more than doubled its voter share in the last election.
Every mainstream political party in Germany has pledged not to join with AfD to form a coalition government. That blockade is ironclad and is known in Germany as the “firewall.” The “firewall” is a direct result of the country’s post-World War II efforts to suppress extremist parties and views.
AfD was founded in 2013 with the initial objective of opposing Germany’s participation in the European Union and rejecting Euro currency. The party quickly shifted toward ultranationalism and anti-immigration policies. Over time, factions within AfD have embraced far-right ideology more openly, as they seek to minimize Germany’s responsibility for the Holocaust and promote nationalist themes reminiscent of Nazi-era ideology. Some AfD members have been convicted of violating German law which prohibits the use of Nazi slogans, and others have been arrested for trying to overthrow the federal government.
Until now, Germany has been the most successful European nation at shutting out hard-right parties from political power. France has faced similar challenges, and rival parties recently joined together to engineer strategic voting to deny the hard-right National Rally a parliamentary majority. At the same time, similar “firewalls” in Netherlands, Hungary and Italy have failed.
There was fear that the recent public embrace of AfD by Vice President JD Vance and his urgings that everyone work with hard-right parties that are focused on public anxiety over immigration might bring further pressure on other German parties to integrate AfD into mainstream politics. But, for now, that effort failed.
Merz has promised to maintain the AfD firewall. That should work, for now. But if AfD and far-right ideology continue to rise in acceptance and popularity with the German electorate, that could threaten the “firewall” and the ability of mainstream political parties in Germany to keep the hard-right philosophy and objectives of AfD out of government.
That is making everyone nervous.
