The world gasped at the lightning speed of the Syrian rebels’ sweep through the country, overtaking Aleppo, Hama, Homs, and Damascus in less than 10 days and forcing the brutal “strong man,” former President Bashar al-Assad, and his family to flee in the darkness of night — with as much cash as they could stuff in their suitcases — for asylum under the protection of al-Assad’s longtime patron, Russian President Vladimir Putin.
The most prominent rebel group behind al-Assad’s ouster is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, which began two decades ago at the beginning of Syria’s civil war in 2011, with early links to the Islamic State and then to al-Qaida. Although the group has drifted from al-Qaida, the U.S. and other Western countries still consider it a terrorist group.
The leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham is Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, the son of Syrian exiles who was born in Saudi Arabia, and who, after joining al-Qaida, spent several years in an American prison in Iraq.
Since breaking ties with al-Qaida, al-Jolani and his group have eschewed jihadi ambitions and focused on organized governance in Syria. But questions remain as to whether al-Jolani can be trusted and whether Syrians will accept him and his group’s conservative and sometimes hardline Sunni Islamic ideology.
Syria may be ready for more significant change. But it isn’t clear where such a change might come from — though there are lots of competitors for that opportunity.
Among those vying for influence with Syria’s newly triumphant rebel leaders are Kurdish forces who are closely connected to the United States; Turkey, which effectively controls a zone along Syria’s northern border; Russia, the longtime backer of the al-Assad regime that wasn’t able to devote resources to al-Assad because of the distraction of its war of attrition in Ukraine; the United States, whose role in the Syrian civil war has shifted several times;
and Israel.
The Israeli military took control over the Syrian buffer zone in the Golan Heights last week and Israel’s air force destroyed chemical weapon stockpiles, radar systems, and air defense and Scud missiles in Syria to ensure that rebel forces would not have access to them.
Questions remain about Syria’s future governance, security and economy and whether rebel groups will be able to unite to control the entire country and fill the al-Assad power vacuum.
Al-Assad’s historic dependence on Russia and Iran and support from Hezbollah in Lebanon have all fallen by the wayside. Russia suffered humiliation when its decades-long al-Assad investment collapsed while resources were being dissipated in Ukraine. And the role of Israel in the process — through its decimation of Hezbollah and strategic elimination of Iran’s radar and monitoring systems — cannot be ignored.
That leaves much of the Syrian rebel community to figure things out on its own, as the players within the “Axis of Evil” who have been supportive are either ineffective, defeated or distracted.
The rebels have limited choices, limited time and limited resources. But there are significant opportunities for new relationships and a new direction. We wait to see what choices the rebels make.
